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Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo, what to expect

Canelo’s belts

Canelo Alvarez is putting his unified Super Middleweight Titles on the line. 

Canelo vs Charlo Weigh-ins by Esther Lin/SHOWTIME

Jermell Charlo, the underdog

Jermell Charlo is the undisputed Light Middleweight champion. The “smaller” opponent is jumping two weight classes to prey on what many see as a champ in decline.  This fight, by all measures, is Charlo’s biggest of his long and very successful career.  A win over Saul Alvarez – in any way, shape or form – would likely catapult Charlo’s pound for pound rankings and multiply his earning power.  

Canelo vs Charlo Weigh-ins

Canelo’s mindset

Canelo wants to silence his doubters with a command performance Saturday night.  The Mexican super star didn’t wipe out his last three opponents.  A loss to Dmitry Bivol and two decision wins (vs. Gennady Golovkin, then John Ryder) were considered underwhelming outings for the champion. 

Canelo looks to remind everyone why he is considered the (second) best active fighter in the world. 

Canelo vs Charlo Weigh-ins by Esther Lin/SHOWTIME

Fight predictions

I will skip to it, I think he will prevail. 

Charlo has a few advantages over Canelo: Reach, speed. Obviously thunder in his hands with dangerous punching power. 

I look for Canelo to control the distance and pace of the fight in the early rounds (1-5).  I fully expect him to work out of the high guard and attack Charlo’s body often as they clash. 

I expect Charlo to look for effective counters, most likely uppercuts. Canelo’s pressure to the body will be more than Charlo has experienced before. They have weight divisions for a reason. 

Canelo vs Charlo Weigh-ins by  Esther Lin/SHOWTIME

Charlo’s finishing attack is either a lightning bolt strike or a flurry of rights and lefts to an already overwhelmed and winded opponent.  If he is skilled enough to get that timing and accuracy for that lightning strike, that is his best chance at victory. 

I see the possibilities of a decision or getting Canelo to the exasperated condition at close to zero. 

I look for a unanimous decision for Canelo or, if Charlo’s ring rust is a real factor, possibly at a 10th round stoppage.


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